Policy Reports
Populists in Power: Perils and Prospects in 2021
Donald Trump’s attempts to subvert the democratic process and peaceful transfer of power illustrate the risks associated with populist leaders, who undermine the norms and institutions on which liberal democracy depends. But Trump is just the most salient example of populists in power around the world. Our annual study takes stock of the prevalence of populist leaders globally at the start of 2021. We find that the number of populist leaders in power around the world is down from its mid-2010s high, but it is close to the same level as at the start of the last decade. The composition of populist leaders in power has shifted. Cultural populists now constitute the majority of all populist leaders. Trump’s loss may constrain other populist leaders around the world as they will likely have less international support and voters may become tired of their antics. But his absence is unlikely to damage their electoral prospects since most came to power before Trump was elected and base their support on domestic issues. Most are savvy and will adjust their behaviour accordingly. US institutions are strong and held up against Trump’s attempts to subvert them. Countries with weaker institutions may be less likely to withstand a similar onslaught by a populist leader.
The Covid-19 pandemic has had some counterintuitive political effects, with populist leaders who took Covid-19 seriously in many cases receiving a polling boost. Opposition populist parties in western Europe took a polling hit in the first three months of the pandemic but had returned almost to their pre-Covid-19 polling levels by the end of October. The economic fallout from Covid-19 will create opportunities for cultural populists in advanced democracies.
Donald Trump’s attempts to subvert the democratic process and peaceful transfer of power illustrate the risks associated with populist leaders, who undermine the norms and institutions on which liberal democracy depends. But Trump is just the most salient example of populists in power around the world. Our annual study takes stock of the prevalence of populist leaders globally at the start of 2021. We find that the number of populist leaders in power around the world is down from its mid-2010s high, but it is close to the same level as at the start of the last decade. The composition of populist leaders in power has shifted. Cultural populists now constitute the majority of all populist leaders. Trump’s loss may constrain other populist leaders around the world as they will likely have less international support and voters may become tired of their antics. But his absence is unlikely to damage their electoral prospects since most came to power before Trump was elected and base their support on domestic issues. Most are savvy and will adjust their behaviour accordingly. US institutions are strong and held up against Trump’s attempts to subvert them. Countries with weaker institutions may be less likely to withstand a similar onslaught by a populist leader.
The Covid-19 pandemic has had some counterintuitive political effects, with populist leaders who took Covid-19 seriously in many cases receiving a polling boost. Opposition populist parties in western Europe took a polling hit in the first three months of the pandemic but had returned almost to their pre-Covid-19 polling levels by the end of October. The economic fallout from Covid-19 will create opportunities for cultural populists in advanced democracies.
Pandemic Populism: An Analysis of Populist Leaders' Responses to Covid-19
While the perception of populist politicians' responses to Covid-19 is that they've downplayed it, we find that this hasn't been the case for most of the populist leaders currently in power in our database. Of the 17 populist leaders in power at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, we find that only 5 (including Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil) have consistently tried to downplay the significance of the virus. But while 12 of the 17 populists in power took the virus seriously, including adopting science-driven policies and giving a prominent role to experts, we found that their approaches in handling it differed. We found that 4 of our 17 populist leaders took a liberal serious response and didn't use the pandemic to crack down on their opponents. But we also found that 5 of our 17 populist leaders took an illiberal serious response, using the pandemic to try to pass controversial legislation, enact harsh lockdowns, and enforce these lockdowns in ways that were biased against their political opponents. 3 of our 17 leaders took intermediate responses. While the 5 leaders who downplayed the crisis represented all of our three types of populists (Socio-Economic, Anti-Establishment, and Cultural), we found that only Cultural Populists took an illiberal serious response, often using the pandemic to gain the upper hand in the cultural conflicts that they used to attain power. We close with a discussion of how Covid-19 is unlikely to kill populism and may even strengthen it in the long-run.
While the perception of populist politicians' responses to Covid-19 is that they've downplayed it, we find that this hasn't been the case for most of the populist leaders currently in power in our database. Of the 17 populist leaders in power at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, we find that only 5 (including Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil) have consistently tried to downplay the significance of the virus. But while 12 of the 17 populists in power took the virus seriously, including adopting science-driven policies and giving a prominent role to experts, we found that their approaches in handling it differed. We found that 4 of our 17 populist leaders took a liberal serious response and didn't use the pandemic to crack down on their opponents. But we also found that 5 of our 17 populist leaders took an illiberal serious response, using the pandemic to try to pass controversial legislation, enact harsh lockdowns, and enforce these lockdowns in ways that were biased against their political opponents. 3 of our 17 leaders took intermediate responses. While the 5 leaders who downplayed the crisis represented all of our three types of populists (Socio-Economic, Anti-Establishment, and Cultural), we found that only Cultural Populists took an illiberal serious response, often using the pandemic to gain the upper hand in the cultural conflicts that they used to attain power. We close with a discussion of how Covid-19 is unlikely to kill populism and may even strengthen it in the long-run.
High Tide? Populism in Power 1990-2020
In this piece, we update our Populists in Power database on which democratic countries contain populist leaders through early 2019. We find that the number of populists in power in 2019 was near an all-time high at 19, but that the composition of populist leaders had changed over this period. While in earlier periods, most populist leaders either left-wing populists (which we call Socio-Economic populists) or rose in opposition to a long-entrenched regime (which we call Anti-Establishment populists), most current populist leaders in power are right-wing Cultural Populists. These are leaders like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, who mobilize voters over cultural grievances, including opposition to cultural elites and often on issues involving immigration and religious or ethnic minorities.
In this piece, we update our Populists in Power database on which democratic countries contain populist leaders through early 2019. We find that the number of populists in power in 2019 was near an all-time high at 19, but that the composition of populist leaders had changed over this period. While in earlier periods, most populist leaders either left-wing populists (which we call Socio-Economic populists) or rose in opposition to a long-entrenched regime (which we call Anti-Establishment populists), most current populist leaders in power are right-wing Cultural Populists. These are leaders like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, who mobilize voters over cultural grievances, including opposition to cultural elites and often on issues involving immigration and religious or ethnic minorities.
Op-Eds
Trump and Bolsonaro's coronavirus response was poor, but that doesn't mean all populists are bad in a crisis. The Independent. Aug. 17, 2020.
Another Populist Moment? Inside Story. Dec. 10, 2020.
Another Populist Moment? Inside Story. Dec. 10, 2020.